## Information

Web page for the book Active Statistics by Andrew Gelman and Aki Vehtari.

This book provides statistics instructors and students with complete classroom material for a one- or two-semester course on applied regression and causal inference. It is built around 52 stories, 52 class-participation activities, 52 hands-on computer demonstrations, and 52 discussion problems that allow instructors and students to explore in a fun way the real-world complexity of the subject. The book fosters an engaging ‘flipped classroom’ environment with a focus on visualization and understanding. The book provides instructors with frameworks for self-study or for structuring the course, along with tips for maintaining student engagement at all levels, and practice exam questions to help guide learning. Designed to accompany the authors’ previous textbook Regression and Other Stories, its modular nature and wealth of material allow this book to be adapted to different courses and texts or be used by learners as a hands-on workbook.

## Contents

• Part 1: Organizing a plan of study
1. Active learning
1.1. Flipped classroom and collaborative learning
1.2. What happens during the semester?
1.3. Active learning in class
1.4. Scheduling
1.5. Assessment and feedback
1.6. Some general issues in teaching and communication
2. Setting up a course of study
2.1 What to learn and how to learn it
2.2 Computing
2.3 Course material
2.4 Real data and simulated data
2.5 Two kinds of computer demonstrations
2.6 Challenges in learning particular topics
2.8 Using these materials in introductory or more advanced courses
2.9 Balance between challenges and solutions
• Part 2: Stories, activities, problems, and demonstrations
1. Week by week: the first semester
3.1 Introduction to quantitative social science
3.2 Prediction as a unifying theme in statistics and causal inference
3.3 Data collection and visualization
3.4 Review of mathematics and probability
3.5 Statistical inference
3.6 Simulation
3.7 Background on regression modeling
3.8 Linear regression with a single predictor
3.9 Least squares and ﬁtting regression models
3.10 Prediction and Bayesian inference
3.11 Linear regression with multiple predictors
3.12 Assumptions, diagnostics, and model evaluation
3.13 Regression with linear and log transformations
2. Week by week: the second semester
4.14 Review of basic statistics and regression modeling
4.15 Logistic regression163
4.16 Working with logistic regression
4.17 Other generalized linear models
4.18 Design and sample size decisions
4.19 Poststratiﬁcation and missing-data imputation
4.21 Causal inference using regression on the treatment variable
4.22 Causal inference as prediction
4.23 Imbalance and lack of complete overlap
4.24 Additional topics in causal inference
4.25 Advanced regression and multilevel models
4.26 Review of the course
• Appendices
1. Pre-test questions
A.1 First semester
A.2 Second semester
2. Final exam questions
B.1 Multiple-choice questions for the ﬁrst semester
B.2 Multiple-choice questions for the second semester
B.3 Take-home exam
3. Outlines of classroom activities
C.1 First semester
C.2 Second semester

## List of classroom activities

### First semester

Week Stories Activities Computer demonstrations Discussion problems
1. Introduction Wikipedia

Literary Digest poll of 1936
Design a study

Design experiment to distinguish two hypotheses
Collect and analyze simulated data

Predict elections from economy
Find the hidden assumption

Find the hidden assumptions
2. Overview of applied regression (Chapter 1 of Regression and Other Stories) United Nations peacekeeping

Girls and sports
Bag of candies and sampling bias

Gather and plot data from students
Graph of data and fitted line

Tinker with an example
Height and earnings

Graph hypothetical data
3. Data collection and visualization (Chapter 2 of ROS) Political leanings of sports fans

Use comparisons to redraw a graph
Measure handedness

Make plots clearer
Tell stories with graphs

Plots of baby names
4. Basics of math and probability (Chapter 3 of ROS) Death rate in the pandemic

Galton’s giants
Amoebas and exponential growth

Squares, cubes, and power-law growth
Matrix manipulations

Compute weighted averages

Probability of a rare event
5. Statistical inference (Chapter 4 of ROS) They got the wrong standard error

Claims of implausibly large effects
Design a bogus study

Simulate fake data and confidence interval

Proportions, means, and differences
Confidence intervals and true values

Standard error for feeling thermometers
6. Simulation (Chapter 5 of ROS) Proportion of identical twins

Simulate a process of innovation
Real vs. fake coin flips

Simulate a probability process
Break R functions

Simulate 100 coin flips
Discrete / continuous distribution

Simulate clustering of buses
7. Background on regression modeling (Chapter 6 of ROS) Slope when predicting elections from the economy

Clinton/Trump vote vs. polls, and predictions
Simulate fake data and fit a regression

Memory quiz and regression to the mean
Play with a simulated regression

Challenges in setting up a simulation
Examples of regression to the mean

Uniform partisan swing
8. Linear regression with a single predictor (Chapter 7 of ROS) $$5^2 + 12^2 = 13^2$$

African countries in the U.N.
Simulate and recover regression lines

Socioeconomic status and political views
Regression, transformations, and sample size

Take average or regress on a constant term
Predict elections from incumbency

How large was the sample size?
9. Fitting regression models (Chapter 8 of ROS) Ronald Reagan and the evangelical vote

Does having a girl make you more conservative/liberal?
Move a point and shift the regression line Play with the regression estimate

Compare lm and stan_glm
From inference to decision

Sample size and statistical significance
10. Prediction and Bayesian inference (Chapter 9 of ROS) Fairness of random exams

Uncertainties in election forecasts
Coverage of prediction intervals

Prior for a real-world parameter
Different forms of predictive uncertainty

Bayes estimate of childhood intervention
Coverage of prediction intervals

Prior for a real-world parameter
11. Linear regression with multiple predictors (Chapter 10 of ROS) Incumbency advantage in elections

Beauty and teaching evaluations
Memory quiz with pre-test and treatment

Design a study with regression in mind
Regression with interactions

Why look at a pre-test?
12. Assumptions, diagnostics, evaluation (Chapter 11 of ROS) Actual vs. guessed exam scores

Model checking for baseball analytics
Sample size and statistical significance

Assumptions of regression
Take difference or regress on an indicator

Simulate and debug
Assumptions of regression

Patterns of residuals
13. Transformations and regression (Chapter 12 of ROS) Logarithm of world population

Price elasticity of demand
Predictive uncertainties

Combining predictors to create a score
Centered and standardized predictors

Regressions with logged variables
When to use the log scale

Straight line fit to non-linear data

### Second semester

Week Stories Activities Computer demonstrations Discussion problems
14. Review of statistics and regression (Chapters 1–12 of ROS) Biased samples and coverage of intervals

The problem of too much talent?
Self-selected treatment assignment

Design a study to explore nonlinearity

Simulating patterns of bias

15. Logistic regression (Chapter 13 of ROS) Item-response analysis of final exams

Survey nonresponse
“Two truths and a lie” game

Predict the views of others
Displaying a logistic curve

Logistic regression probabilities
Real-world logistic regression

Where logistic regression makes no sense
16. Working with logistic regression (Chapter 14 of ROS) “Keys to the White House”

Opiate of the masses
Job training and predictive comparisons

Logistic regression with interactions
Predictions from logistic regression

Linear or logistic regression
Experimental design

Design with pre-test
17. Other generalized linear models (Chapter 15 of ROS) Patterns of gun ownership

Structure in social networks
How similar are you to your friends?

Alternative models for discrete data
Simulating overdispersed data

Generalized linear model with offset
Identification in linear models

Functional forms for non-linear models
18. Design and sample size decisions (Chapter 16 of ROS) The multiverse and the feedback loop

Lucky golf balls and implausible effect sizes
Design an experiment from scratch

Hypothetical study of left-handedness
Design analysis by simulation

Design for estimating interactions
Designing a survey

Designing future studies
19. Poststratification and missing-data imputation (Chapter 17 of ROS) Estimating state-level opinion

Environmental Sustainability Index
Generalizing from class to population

Experimental design and effect sizes
Regression and post-stratification

Random imputation
Network sampling

Problems with missing data
20. Causal inference and randomized experiments (Chapter 18 of ROS) Varying treatment effects

Ballot-order effects

Potential outcomes for ballot order

Sample and population averages
Randomization and ethics

Assumptions in randomized experiments
21. Causal inference using regression on treatment (Chapter 19 of ROS) Pest control experiment

Social penumbras

Average treatment effects
Benefits of pre-treatment data

Combining pre-treatment predictors
Causal logistic regression

Holding all else equal?
22. Causal inference (Chapters 18–19 of ROS) No effect of heart stents?

The freshman fallacy
Components of an observational study

Study makers vs. study breakers
Playing with least squares

Individual and average effects

Nudge meta-analysis
23. Observational studies with measured confounders (Chapter 20 of ROS) Retrospective evaluation of a policy

Postal service modeling
Imbalance and lack of overlap

Victimization and views on crime policy
Poststratification for causal inference

Measurement error models
Effects of campaign contributions

Effects and variation
24. Additional topics in causal inference (Chapter 21 of ROS) Deterrent effect of death penalty

Regression discontinuity mishaps
Two measures of the same quantity

“Why” questions and causal inference
Instrumental variables

25. Advanced regression and multilevel models (Chapter 22 of ROS) Nonlinearity in leafout dates

Governors’ elections and lifespans
Nonlinear treatment effect

When do students stop coming to class?
Modeling golf putting in Stan

Opinions on same-sex marriage
Noisy time series

20 data points and 16 predictors
26. Review of the course (Chapters 1–22 of ROS) Randomized trials in international development

Is North Carolina less democratic than North Korea?
Designing a paper helicopter

Review in groups